Well, it's official

Today, I officially registered for the Armed Forces Day 5k in Harrisburg on Saturday, May 15th, so I suppose it is on...

Training has gone very well to date, although I am skipping my long run this weekend because I've listened to my body. I did my longest tempo run ever on Friday evening around sundown, had a long day yesterday, and just was not feeling totally right when I got up this morning. I might have taken a go at it, except for the unseasonable warmth and accompanying humidity. The bottom line is that my endurance is well built up at this point, this is the only run I've missed in the first 6 weeks so it doesn't seem likely to really mess me up, and overtraining could lead to a major setback.

Anyhow, with 2 weeks to go, and only one week of full training (the last week is an easy week to taper down and be properly rested for the race), it's time to really start thinking about goals.

Assuming the courses I train on are pretty close to the lengths I believe they are, I've been tempo running at about a 7:15-7:20 minute/mile pace, with my longest period at tempo pace being 20 minutes (I covered about 2.75 miles in that stretch). Maintaining that pace for a 5k would lead to something in the vicinity of a 22:30 for. Now, the idea of tempo running is that it's supposed to be below race pace, so in theory I should expect to run faster than that pace in the race. However, I'm going to temper my expectations for a few reasons.
#1 - I think, since I don't have a race history to know my race pace that I'm probably tempo running closer to my limit than I should be.
#2 - I'm not yet fast enough to cover 5k during my tempo runs, so I'll have some extra distance to cover once I get best the longest I've run at such a pace before.
#3 - If anything, I think the course I use for my tempo runs is a bit shorter than I count it as.
#4 - This is my first race - I'm a bit concerned the adrenaline might mess with my pacing discipline.

Of course, there are a couple things that work in my favor:
#1 - My tempo runs are often the 3rd of 3 straight daily runs, and almost always at least the 2nd of two in a row, and they always occur towards the end of the day, so I'm not necessarily on the freshest of legs. On raceday, I'll be running first thing in the morning with a couple days of rest behind me.
#2 - When I tempo run, I start out with 8 to 10 minutes of running at a long run pace, so I'm actually 28-30 minutes into a run when I finish the faster portion. In the race, I'll be starting with completely fresh legs.

All of that put together, with this being my first race, I'm taking a pretty conservative approach and looking for a time around 22:30, though I think I might be capable of better. My plan, for the time being, is to be relatively conservative over the first two miles or so, with the hope of having plenty in the tank for a very good final mile. If I make a mistake with pacing in this race, I want to do so in favor of having something left at the end, as opposed to bonking and having to struggle to the finish. One very nice aspect of the course for the race for a novice like myself is that it is very flat overall.

Another positive development regarding the race occurred today, as some friends, who were just coming off of a half-marathon yesterday, got the bug and decided to run the race with me. I think it'll make for much more fun day having a group for support at the starting line and to celebrate with afterwards, and potentially some company on the run itself depending on how they pace.