Looking at the Final Four

So, I've been talking about what a great Final Four we're going to have, starting tonight, as for the first time ever, we have nothing but number 1 seeds left. UNC, Kansas, UCLA, and Memphis have been the best four teams in the country all season, and they have survived to battle for the ultimate prize. As I've announced before, my original bracket predictions had UCLA defeating UNC in the championship game, so I still hope that is what happens, but I'm unsure that I think that is what will happen.

As I break things down, I'm quite comfortable with UNC as the winner of their game against Kansas. Tyler Hansbrough (this week's SI cover, for the second time in a month) is one of the best players I've seen at the collegiate level, and his will is just tremendous, as has been documented over and over again. Unfortunately, the focus on his work ethic and determination often overshadows what a talent he truly is. I don't see Kansas having a match for him one on one. UNC has been exceedingly impressive throughout their tournament run, but never more so than in dispatching Louisville, Louisville may have been playing better than any team that didn't make the Final Four. Kansas, on the other hand, looked less than impressive in dispatching Davidson. Davidson is not your average 10 seed, but still, it leaves some doubts for me. The experts have suggested that Kansas played that game tight, thinking about some of their recent failures, and that the pressure will be off them in the Final Four. That may be true, but I really question it. I think the X factor for this game will be what UNC gets out of point guard Ty Lawson, who has been somewhat hit or miss since returning from an ankle injury that cost him 7 games towards the end of the regular season. If Lawson is playing well, I don't think Kansas can stay with the Tar Heels.

UCLA and Memphis is more interesting to me. Memphis was absolutely dominant last weekend in dispatching Michigan State and Texas, and they excelled in what has been their biggest area of weakness, free throw shooting. The Tigers are well coached and ridiculously athletic, and Derrick Rose may be the best guard playing in San Antonio this weekend. UCLA finally found a dominating performance against Xavier, after a lackluster first 3 games of the tournament. UCLA, of course, has been here before, as this is their 3rd straight Final Four appearance, and you know Coach Ben Howland will have them ready to go. UCLA also has the kind of special inside presence that you don't see that much at the college level anymore, in freshman Kevin Love. The big question here will be which team's style will be able to control the game - UCLA's controlled, defensive style, or Memphis' more open game. UCLA was my title pick, but I'm finding it hard to pick against Memphis right now. I think the bottom line will be that, if they hit their free throws like they did last weekend, they will advance. If they look more like they have all season from the line, they could be in trouble. All of that being said, I think I'm gonna have to go against my bracket, and pick Memphis in this one.

I'm not going to spend a ton of space breaking down a game that may not happen, so I'll just simply say if that matchup occurs, I'll take UNC over Memphis in an epic title game.