Your 2007 NFL MVP..... Randy Moss?

I have to be upfront about a couple things before I get started with today's take. First of all, I have to give credit to Jayson Whitlock of the Kansas City Star for getting me started down this path. He was filling in for Jim Rome today, and expressed the opinion I'm about to expand upon, one that I wholeheartedly agree with. Secondly, it pains me that I share his opinion on this particular issue, because I can't stand the player that I"m about to laud.

Anyhow, the NFL regular season is wrapping up. The New England Patriots seem poised to make history this weekend by completing the first perfect 16-0 regular season, and only the 2nd perfect regular season ever, to go along with the '72 Dolphins 14-0 mark. As the season winds down, you traditionally start hearing a lot of the debate about who is going to be the NFL's MVP. There isn't a lot of discussion about that this season, however, because the overwhelming consensus is that Patriot quarterback Tom Brady will receive the honor. And on the surface, it seems really hard to argue with. Brady is at the helm of the NFL's best team. He has thrown for over 4400 yards, is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, and has 48 touchdown passes (one shy of Peyton Manning's record 49, with one game left to play) against only 8 interceptions. His season will rank as one of the great single season performances of all-time. He's a very worthy candidate, but not the most worthy, in my opinion. To find the most worthy player, you don't need to leave the Pats, however. The 2007 MVP should be none other than Brady's favorite target, wide receiver Randy Moss.

Moss has been on the receiving end of 21 of Brady's touchdown passes. Should he catch 2 touchdowns in the Patriots' last regular season game, he would eclipse Jerry Rice's single season record. His 1393 yards receiving rank him 2nd in the league, behind only the Colts' Reggie Wayne. He's had an incredible year by any standards, but his raw numbers by themselves just don't do justice to the impact he's had on the Patriots this year. The Pats scored 381 points last season, and have scored over 400 points just once since Brady took over as their signal caller. This season, they have 551 points going into the last game of the season, and are poised to break the all-time single season record for points scored by a team, incidentally set by Minnesota back in 1998, when Moss was a rookie sensation. (The Vikings scoring total was up about 200 points from their previous year that season as well)

Or perhaps we should look at Brady's numbers. Let me first be clear - Brady is a great quarterback - deservedly in the discussion as one of the best ever. He didn't need Randy Moss for that to be true, and I'm not about to bash Brady. But just look at the production spike this year. He had never thrown 30 TDs in a season, in 2007 he's got a good look at 50. He's looking at throwing for 500-600 more yards this year than he ever has before (perhaps more notably, he's averaging a half yard more per attempt than his previous best season in that stat, and more than a yard better than his career average), and his passer rating should wind up about 25 points higher than his previous career best. Now, guys have career years, and there may be other factors here, but quarterbacks who have success with Moss that they've never duplicated without him is a marked trend at this point. Randall Cunningham in Moss's rookie year still likely stands as the best example, but Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper also fit the pattern quite well. Cunningham and George stand as particularly noteworthy, because these are guys who given their age, should have been on the downside of their careers, if anything, when they met up with Moss.

Those who would champion Brady as the MVP in the face of an argument for Moss point out that Moss was not the only addition to the Patriots' receiving corp this season, as the Patriots did a complete overhaul, also bringing in Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. That's a fair point, and I don't want to minimize their contributions, but seriously, does anyone really think those two by themselves represented a significant upgrade for the Patriots? Neither player had enjoyed significant success prior to arriving in New England, and Stallworth really hasn't been that great this year. Welker has been terrific as a possession receiver and Brady's escape guy on 3rd down, but that's a pretty easy job when Randy Moss is dictating coverage all over the field. His yards/catch are similar to what they were in Miami, so the bottom line isn't that he's playing that much better, just that he's been left open more often. Facts are facts - Brady has always been known for doing very well despite not having a particularly strong set of receivers, and if the Patriots' additions this offseason had stopped after Welker and Stallworth, we'd still be saying the same thing. Stallworth and Welker aren't difference making players, and if they are at the top of your receiving depth chart, you don't have a great corp of receivers. Moss, when motivated, is an absolute game changer, and his presence on the field opens up the offense for everyone. The patterns seen throughout his career demonstrate that rather clearly.

The key phrase there is "when motivated", and his stint in Oakland where he was widely known to have been disinterested, and basically shutdown on the team, is what his critics would point to. That's fair, and is definitely an indictment on the guy's overall demeanor and his character (remember, I said at the beginning I can't stand him), but the simple fact is that that has nothing to do with his performance this year, when he has been motivated and sensational, and the Patriots have gone from a good offense to an all-time great one with his presence. To paraphrase Whitlock, we're talking about the 2007 NFL MVP, not a lifetime acheivement award. Again, I'm not knocking Brady, but seriously, I guarantee you I wouldn't have to look that hard to find at 4 or 5 deep balls that Moss caught that he never would have even thrown to a different wideout. Throwing a deep ball into double coverage isn't traditionally a good decision, but when Moss is out there, it works. The guy makes quarterbacks look better than they are. You can talk about Brady as a great quarterback (he is) and Belichick as a great coach (he is), but they'd been together in New England for 6 years prior to this season. What's more likely - that those two suddenly got a lot better at what they do, or that an addition like Moss elevated the team?

Now, this is where I diverge from Whitlock to some degree, as he would have you believe that the primary reason Moss isn't going to win the MVP, or even get serious consideration, is that the writers won't vote for him because of his well-earned reputation. Now, I'm clearly not one to hesitate to call the meida out, and I know the media is more than capable of holding someone's personality and reputation against them, but I don't see that in this case. I'm not going to say that his rep is not a factor, but here's a fact for your consumption - a wide receiver has NEVER been voted as an MVP by the Associated Press since they started the award back in 1957. That's right NEVER. There have been more placekickers (one) than wideouts voted as the league MVP. MVPs go to quarterbacks, running backs, and on a rare occasion to someone on the defense. Perhaps Moss's past would hold him back, but it seems his position will render the discussion moot before the past would come up. It would seem that credit for passing achievement is more readily attributed to the
guy throwing the ball than to the guy catching it. And perhaps for a lot of wide receivers, that's a fair assessment. Moss, however, has made a career out of making the guy throwing the ball look better than they've ever been. Perhaps it's time we take a closer look and realize that football is a team game, and that the guys around the quarterback have a ton to say about how good a quarterback is.