Which team has what it takes to finish?

Given what I understand my current readership to be, I'm guessing sports takes won't be my most popular pieces. However, I do want to be a sportswriter someday, and there is a rather significant sporting event about to kick off, so I would be remiss if I didn't speak my piece about it. Hang in there non-sports fan. I promise I'll have something more interesting for you up soon, possibly even today if I have time.

Anyhow, the World Series kicks off tomorrow night at Boston's Fenway Park, between the Boston Red Sox and the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies come into the Series on a tear, having won 14 of their last 15 regular season games to even make the playoffs, and then winning their first 7 playoff games to sweep their way into the World Series. However, they've been sitting around waiting for the last 8 days. In the meantime, the Red Sox, who were a popular preseason pick to be World Series champions, have followed through on that promise for the most part, and come off a terrific comeback to win the ALCS after trailing Cleveland 3-1 in the series.

Before I launch into my take on this series, I have to come clean. I want the Rockies to win this series, for a number of reasons. First of all, the first team the Rockies swept this postseason was the Philadelphia Phillies, my favorite team. That will sting somewhat less if they go on to become World Series champions. Secondly, since the Sox ended the curse in 2004, they and their fans have managed to move to just behind the Yankees on my baseball crap list. And finally, I love to witness sports history as it unfolds, and so I would love to see the Rockies close off this historic run with a championship. So, I'm biased here. I have a rooting interest, but I will do my best to step out of that and form an objective opinion.

First of all, I want to start by dismissing the notion I've picked up from a large number of folks, particularly Red Sox fans and fans of other AL team, that the Rockies are pretenders who just got hot at the right time and are lucky to be here. They definitely got hot at the right time, and you don't win 21 of 22 games without some good fortune, but the Rockies are for real. Not even a 4 game sweep by Boston would change my opinion of that. Yes the Rockies were only a handful of games over .500 in early September, and yes the NL is the weaker of the two leagues again this year, at least at the top of the league. But baseball history tells me you don't win 21 of 22 against any level of competition if you aren't a very, very good club. The list of teams that have gone 20 or so games with only 1 loss is loaded with World Champions and teams that won 100+ games in the regular season. What makes the Rockies streak even more incredible is that other than the very first win against Florida, every game has been against a team with a winning record. So that means their last 21 games have been against teams that won over half their games this season, and the Rockies have lost exactly once. They are legit.

That being said, I still think Boston is the better team, but not by as much as a lot of people think. Both teams have a stacked offense, and both teams are pretty good in the bullpen. Where the Sox have the edge is in the rotation, at least on paper, with the real difference maker being their ace, Josh Beckett. This guy is a terrific pitcher at anytime of year, but when the bell rings for the postseason, he just becomes absolutely filthy. He's made 9 postseason appearances, and has an ERA of 1.78. In only one of his 8 postseason starts has he surrendered more than 2 runs. The Sox clearly go into this Series expecting him to get them 2 wins, in Games 1 and 5, and that's a fair expectation.

Lots of people will tell you about how pivotal Game 1 of a series is, and I usually agree. In this case, I don't think Game 1 is going to be extremely pivotal. To be more precise, I think it's only pivotal if Colorado wins. With Beckett on the mound, in their home park, and the Rockies trying to shake off the rust of their 8 game layoff, Game 1 is one that I believe Boston absolutely has to get. If Beckett lays an egg, or if Colorado can scratch a couple runs off him and their pitching can make that hold up, I think Colorado moves squarely into the drivers' seat of the series. Beckett getting beat in either of his 2 starts means that Boston needs to get wins on 3 nights when he isn't pitching, and I'm not confident they can get that done. In my book, where I've basically already given Boston the 1-0 lead in the series, Game 2 is where the series turns. If the Rockies win Game 2 and get the split in Boston, I think they win the series. I think they go back to Coors and beat Dice K (who has looked anything but spectacular in the postseason and whose breaking stuff won't be helped by the thin Denver air) and Tim Wakefield. Then even assuming Beckett wins Game 5 to send the Series back to Fenway, I see them ripping one from either Schilling or Dice K to finish the thing off.

Coors Field, to me, is the X factor in this series for the Rockies. Yes, we all know how it's playing more fair in the era of the humidor, but it's still very much a hitters park, and breaking pitches still don't move as much in the thin air. Rockies pitchers have an edge in that regard, given their experience pitching there all year. Additionally, when the Sox come to Coors, they will have to play David Ortiz at 1B to keep his bat in the lineup. Additionally, there is talk of further lineup shuffling to keep regular 1B Kevin Youkilis' bat in the lineup. Coors Field is still just about the last place you want to be messing with your defense. Giving up extra outs will come back to bite you in Coors, in a big way.

And so I must ask, which team has what it takes to finish? I say give me the Rockies in 6, in the upset. I fully acknowledge that my bias is probably playing a role here, but I just can't bring myself to believe that a team that has won 21 of 22 games can't go out and get 4 of their next 7. Here's hoping for a terrific series, regardless of the outcome.