Sizing up the competition

Well, I watched most of the second semi-final, and I have to say, I was quite impressed with Messiah's opponent in the championship game, the Howard Payne Yellowjackets, who defeated UW-Whitewater by a score of 69-59. This was not unexpected, given that HPU came into the game undefeated, and having outscored their opponents by an average margin of 28 points.

The Yellowjackets are led by WBCA D-III National Player of the Year, G Meia Daniels. Daniels is extremely quick, probably more so than anyone the Falcons have to defend her. She struck me as the kind of guard that has given Messiah's defense fits in the past, and I'm most recently thinking back to Kean in January, and in last year's NCAA tournament. Also, unlike Oglethorpe, HPU will not be at a size disadvantage down low, as they have two very strong interior players in SR F Kimberly Hoffman, and SR C Stacey Blalock. I think Blalock in particular could cause Messiah some problems due to her size/strength combination, which I don't know that any of Messiah's defenders can match. Those three anchor the HPU offense. Defensively, HPU is extremely stout as well, as the fact that they are holding opponent's under 33% shooting for the year attests to. My biggest concern for the Falcons is that HPU is a dominant rebounding team, and Messiah tends to struggle on the boards against good competition, particularly in terms of giving up a number of offensive rebounds, due to the aggressive kind of man to man defense they play.

Okay, enough of the doom and gloom, I do see some areas where Messiah has the edge. As talented as Meia Daniels is, I don't think she's going to be able to deal with Nikki Lobach's offensive array, assuming she is guarding Lobach. I don't see anyone else on that team being able to do the job, so I expect this to be the matchup. Nikki has a slight height advantage, and I believe is also stronger, which favors her post up attack. HPU did play a fairly aggressive zone for at least part of the time I was watching, so perhaps it will be more of a collective responsbility. And, while I don't see anyone matching with Blalock of HPU in terms of size and strength, HPU doesn't seem to have anyone on the interior who is going to be able to deal with Sal Shani's size/speed/athleticism combination. As she has been throughout the tournament, Shani is going to be the X factor.

I haven't seen enough of HPU to even begin to predict an outcome with any expertise, especially given my obvious bias. The keys for the Falcons, as they have been pretty much all tournament long, will be to establish some sort of offensive presence in the paint, and to knock down the shots from the perimeter when they present themselves. They will also need to dig down deep and fight for every rebound and loose ball. I think HPU has to be favored, but if Messiah can do the things I just mentioned, they are certainly capable of bringing the walnut and bronze back to Grantham.

So, one more time for 2008, go Falcons!