Saturday, March 29, 2008

Update

Well, with UNC and UCLA's wins tonight, I went 2-0 and got my two championship game participants into the Final Four. Of course, so did the trained chimp, though it's not certain which teams the trained chimp would go with at the Final Four. This is really shaping up to be the year where the trained chimp method could easily produce an office pool champion, if the person using it picked correctly amongst the 1 seeds once they took them all to the Final Four. This is shaping up to be the 4th time that 3 1 seeds make the Final Four, and I think this is the best look we've had in quite some time at the elusive Final Four of all #1 seeds, which has never happened. We'll see. Given that this would be only the 4th time in the last 24 years that the trained chimp method would yield more than 2 Final Four picks, I stand by my earlier assessment of it as a solid strategy for avoiding a crash and burn, but not a winning strategy. I will be doing a full scale evaluation of past results to see how the method fares historically in the earlier rounds.

I just realized I can't do better than 2nd in my pool, but that I would definitely finish 2nd if I get the UCLA over UNC title game result. I came out of the 2nd round down 10 points to a guy who also has that scenario (I had one more than him in the first round, he had 3 more than me in the 2nd), and due to the somewhat unorthodox scoring of this bracket, I can't get ahead of him, even though if Texas beats Memphis, I'd have 3 Final Four picks to his 2.

1 comment:

Andrew Stevens said...

The trained chimp would go with North Carolina over either UCLA or Memphis in the championship game. (Sadly, the trained chimp was in a quandary for the UCLA-Memphis game. The AP has Memphis second and UCLA third, but ESPN/USA Today has UCLA second and Memphis third. I suppose the trained chimp would go with Memphis due to the AP poll's longer and more storied history.)

However, both polls agree that North Carolina is ranked first.